Can world champion Spain beat Croatia on September 29?

Spain enters Tuesday's soccer match against Croatia riding a 39-game unbeaten streak. The reigning world champions host Croatia in Seville at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán stadium, their first home fixture since winning the World Cup in July. Bettors see a heavy favorite, with Polymarket pricing a Spain win at 82% probability.

Luis de la Fuente's squad delivered a near-flawless tournament performance. Spain beat Argentina 1-0 in the final on July 19 and conceded only one goal across eight matches, the lowest total ever by a tournament winner.

Croatia, by contrast, endured a disappointing summer. The team went out to Portugal in its first knockout match, ending its tournament early. Zlatko Dalić resigned after nearly nine years as head coach, prompting Croatia's football federation, which runs the national team, to bring back Slaven Bilić as the new manager.

Both teams won their opening Nations League games on Saturday, but Spain's result was the more impressive one. It won 3-2 at Wembley, England's home stadium, against the team that finished third at the World Cup. Croatia beat Czechia 2-1 in Prague in Bilić's first game back, but needed a late goal after Czechia had tied the match.

Additionally, home advantage strongly favors Spain in this fixture. The team has played 25 times at the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán since 1961 and has never lost a game there.

Croatia could realistically target a draw, having achieved that result against Spain in the past. But that happened only twice: 3-3 in 2021 and 0-0 in 2023. Not to mention that previous draws came against a stronger Croatia squad that reached the 2018 World Cup final and placed third in 2022. The current team exited the tournament early this summer and has only one match under Bilić. Therefore, we expect Spain to win in Seville.