A new top 250 Polymarket whale who only bets on matches already in progress
A brand-new Polymarket wallet has climbed into the all-time top 250 in nine days, but the habit that got it there can also lead to its downfall
A Polymarket wallet trading as BillyGating just turned a Counter-Strike grand final into a six-figure payday. On September 6, 2026, at 12:03 PM EDT, in the middle of the BLAST Open Porto final between Team Spirit and MOUZ, the wallet bought 703,966 shares of Team Spirit at 62 cents for $436,459. The market had opened at 75 cents the day before and fell to 62 cents after MOUZ took Mirage to level the series 1-1. Spirit then won Ancient 13-3 and Nuke 13-6. At 4:53 PM that afternoon, the wallet redeemed $703,966, locking in a profit of $259,215.
The account joined Polymarket in August 2026, placed its first trade on August 29, and has traded 15 markets. In nine days, it has generated $3,073,646 in trading volume and made $821,161 in profit, ranking it 249th all-time on Polymarket’s own leaderboard.
An interesting pattern we found out about him is that he takes no view before an event. Every position is bought live, into a price that has already moved, on a side that is already winning. He bought Emma Navarro at 61 cents about 40 minutes into her 4th-round US Open match that night. The pre-match price had her at 46.5 cents. Seven minutes later, the price was 75.5 cents, and Navarro won 6-4, 6-2.
Unfortunately, the same habit produced his biggest loss. Marcos Giron led Ignacio Buse by a set in the US Open first round on September 2, and the wallet bought Giron at 56 cents. But then Giron lost the next two sets. The wallet kept buying all the way down to 15 cents, ending with 294,728 shares at a blended 45.52 cents. Buse won in five, the shares redeemed for nothing, and the loss totaled $134,154.
Across 15 settled markets, the wallet has 10 winners and 5 losers. The average win is $97,773 against an average loss of $36,397, which is an exceptional performance with a 1:2.69 risk-reward ratio.
At the time of writing this, BillyGating is flat. Everything is redeemed or redeemable, and he is sitting on $1,392,971 in cash with no open position.
Although 15 settled markets is far too small a sample to call a 67% hit rate an edge, his losses provide us with sufficient information about his trading style. For example, traders generally risk no more than 0.5%-5% per bet, depending on their risk tolerance. However, BilliGating bets significantly more than that. If one position the size of the Spirit trade went the way the Giron trade went, it would wipe out more than half of everything he has made. His largest position, $436,459, was 31% of his $1,427,150 in assets. So, the question is then: how long can he maintain such a high-risk trading style and still consistently outperform most traders?
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
