Will Arman Tsarukyan beat Mauricio Ruffy at UFC 331?

Arman Tsarukyan meets Mauricio Ruffy in the co‑main event of UFC 331 on September 19, 2026, a five‑round lightweight bout that basically functions as a title eliminator. The market treats Tsarukyan as a clear favorite, as Kalshi’s contract trades at 74 cents. We see that as an attractive entry for a 35% return.

Tsarukyan’s high probability of winning is due to his exceptional wrestling skills. He turns the fights into a grappling match and drains his opponents, which he can and will likely do with Ruffy’s gas tank over 25 minutes. Tsarukyan has controlled opponents on the ground for 62 minutes 42 seconds across his career, and he gets there by volume, shooting for takedowns at a rate of roughly nine attempts per 15 minutes. Projected over five rounds, that’s about 14–16 tries, enough to force repeated defensive sequences from a striker who has rarely been tested in deep waters.

Ruffy’s only real exposure to this kind of pressure came against Benoît Saint Denis, a judo black belt, in Paris on September 6, 2025. Saint Denis put him on his back inside the first minute, and Ruffy tapped at 2:56 of round 2. This fight exposed the same weakness Tsarukyan is built to exploit. Once taken down, Ruffy spends energy surviving instead of countering, and he has never been pushed into the later rounds where that deficit compounds.

Not to mention, Ruffy has never fought past the third round in 16 professional bouts, and his entire octagon time adds up to just 94 minutes. UFC 331 will be his first five‑round fight, and he is taking it on roughly 30 days’ notice. By contrast, Tsarukyan has already finished a striker with a similar profile. Dan Hooker, an inch taller with the same 75‑inch reach and 77% takedown defense, lasted into round 2 of a five‑round main event before Tsarukyan choked him out on November 22, 2025, after 588 days away from competition.

So how can Ruffy counter Tsarukyan? He only needs one clean shot. The only wrestler he has ever faced was Michael Chandler, an NCAA All‑American, and Ruffy knocked him out at 4:29 of round 1 on June 14, 2026. Knockouts account for 13 of his 14 wins, and he enjoys a 2.5‑inch reach advantage, which gives him a real chance to end the fight early.

Even so, the stylistic edge and the five‑round format logically tilt the risk–reward toward Tsarukyan at 74 cents. The more rounds, the more his grappling volume matters, and the more likely it becomes that Ruffy’s inexperience in deep fights shows up. That’s why we’re willing to back “Yes” on Tsarukyan.