Who will win Montana's Senate seat?

Montana's 2026 Senate race is the state's first open seat in 50 years. With incumbent Steve Daines out and no runoff, the winner needs only a plurality, which means a divided opposition can hand the seat to a candidate who never reaches 50%.

Currently, four candidates are on the November 3 ballot:

• Republican Kurt Alme
• Democrat Alani Bankhead
• Independent Seth Bodnar
• Libertarian Kyle Austin

Polling shows Alme consistently ahead in the full field but stuck in the low 40s. Across eight surveys from June to August, he averages 44%, while Bodnar and Bankhead together average about 46–47%.

In head-to-head matchups, however, Bodnar ties or beats Alme, including a late-July GQR poll that had him up 50–44. Alme's lead, then, is entirely a function of the non-Republican vote splitting.

Bodnar also has the stronger campaign behind him. He raised $3.24 million by June 30, well ahead of Alme's $1.98 million, while Bankhead has brought in under $60,000. Even among Democrats, a late-August poll commissioned by Alme's team showed Bodnar leading Bankhead 49–43.

All of which makes Bodnar tempting to back on Kalshi at 8 cents. But the split that keeps Alme in front is now fixed. Montana's withdrawal deadline passed on August 10 with all four names on the ballot, and Bankhead has vowed to stay, so nobody can take her off it before November 3.

That is why the better risk-adjusted trade is the Republican contract at 92 cents, which returns 8.70% if Kurt Alme is sworn in. Over 53 days, 8.70% works out to nearly 78% annualized.