Can Starlink get an IPO of its own after SpaceX went public?
Prediction markets are asking when Starlink might announce its own IPO, even as the parent company now trades as one entity
SpaceX’s IPO this year effectively closed the door on a separate Starlink listing. The company went public on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026, as a single entity valued at nearly $1.77 trillion, with Starlink treated as one business segment alongside launch services, Starship development, and xAI.
Despite that, Kalshi still runs contracts asking when Starlink will officially announce an IPO, with expirations out to June 30, 2027. Every “Yes” contract now trades at 6 cents or less, so the odds are very low that Starlink will ever confirm its own separate public offering.
The reason these markets even exist in the first place is that they were created well before SpaceX went public. Plus, none of the underlying conditions for a “Yes” resolution have been met.
Looking ahead, the logic points further away from a spinout. There is now a higher chance Elon Musk could transform SpaceX into an even larger entity by merging it with Tesla rather than carving Starlink out into a separate listed company. This would simplify his life, as he’s currently managing multiple companies.
So, buying “No” on any Starlink IPO date is an almost guaranteed, low‑risk bet. The problem is the payoff. At current prices, the return on “No” is too low relative to how long the capital would be locked up. For that reason, we do not think the trade is worth the capital, despite the high probability of success.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
