Which party wins Quebec's National Assembly election on October 5?
Something big is happening in Quebec’s election race, and the odds on one party to win the National Assembly just got very interesting
Quebec heads to the polls on Monday, October 5, 2026, to elect a new National Assembly across 127 electoral divisions, and a Kalshi market on which party will win is pricing the Parti Québécois (PQ) at 72 cents. There are five contracts, one per party, that resolve based on which group wins the most seats on October 5.
The governing Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), which won 90 seats out of 125 in 2022, is now losing to PQ. Here's why:
- Qc125, a Canadian political forecasting and election projection website, in its September 9 update, gives the PQ a 70% chance of winning the most seats.
- Éric Grenier, who tracks Canadian polls, ran 10,000 simulations on September 7 and projected the PQ at 49 seats on average against the CAQ’s 31.
Additionally, three surveys taken between August 28 and September 6 put the PQ at 29% each time, with the CAQ between 23% and 24%. Analysts note that the race has not moved much from the previous week.
With all of the data pointing to a PQ plurality, the trade looks extremely simple. At 72 cents, “Yes” on the PQ returns 38.89% if the party wins the most seats, and the outcome will be known in just over three weeks, which is a relatively fast resolution for this kind of return.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
