Does OpenAI release GPT Astra 6.1 or higher by October 16?

OpenAI has spent this year upgrading its top AI model every couple of months. On September 3, it released its most capable one yet, GPT-6 Astra, and traders are betting on the next. Polymarket's market prices a new Astra by October 16 at a 38% chance.

At OpenAI's usual pace, that will not happen. It went from GPT-5.4 on March 5 to GPT-5.5 on April 23, GPT-5.6 on July 9, and Astra on September 3, gaps of 49, 77, and 56 days. Even the shortest gap would put the next Astra on October 22, six days after the deadline.

And Astra is harder to hurry than any model before it. OpenAI says it is the first model to reach its “Critical” level for hacking, which means it can break into well-protected computer systems on its own. In August, the company slowed work on Astra to add safety protections and let government agencies test it. Its safety post warned that “the models that follow Astra will demand more of us. We will take the time and do the work needed to meet that responsibility.” So the next Astra will get at least as many checks as this one.

OpenAI is also still struggling to hand out this one. On September 10, it paused sign-ups for its $200-a-month Pro plan because demand for Astra was straining its computers, and free users still cannot use Astra.

A new Astra may come this year and likely will, just not by October 16. Even OpenAI's quickest upgrade this year would miss that date, so we expect the “No” side at 93 cents to win.