Here's what happened in prediction markets today
From $71 billion that hasn't moved since 2010 to a Senate favorite polling at 20%, here's what you missed.
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The world chess champion is ranked 26th in the world
Gukesh Dommaraju was rated 2783 the night he took the crown in 2024. He is 2717 today, and in June he came last at Norway Chess, losing five games.
In November he defends the title against a 20-year-old who has never lost a Candidates game. Magnus Carlsen has already said who wins.
The richest wallet on earth has not moved in 15 years
Satoshi Nakamoto's 1.1 million Bitcoin are worth $71.6 billion and have not moved since 2010. Twice this year the internet was certain they had woken up, and twice the coins belonged to somebody else. Meanwhile Bitcoin's own developers are drafting the code that would freeze them.
South Carolina's last frontrunner lost her runoff by 37 points
Trump endorsed Lindsey Graham's sister for his old Senate seat before she had agreed to run, and the market moved 68 points that day. No public poll has ever put her above 20.8%, and South Carolina makes you win a primary with more than half the vote. Five weeks ago, his last pick in this state led the first round and then lost the runoff 68.6 to 31.4.
One in five Michigan voters is breaking 67 to 21 for the loser
Michigan votes on August 4. The two pollsters with no client in this race both have the underdog in front, the two that have her behind were paid for by her opponent's allies, and the governor endorsed her on July 24.
The biggest movie of 2026 has not sold a single ticket
Spider-Man opens on Friday with no reviews, no CinemaScore and not one IMAX screen, and traders have already handed it the year. Its only real rival opens on December 18, which leaves it fourteen days to win 2026. One film in history has ever done what that requires.
Our scoreboard
Four of our calls settled last week and three of them landed perfectly.
We said the World Cup final's record audience was off by 18 million, because every headline used 66 million while the Nielsen figure that actually settles the viewership market was 47.89 million. The rulebook beat the headlines and the position paid 7%.
We said you did not need to understand AI to make money on the next Claude, only a calendar. The release market gave a same-day launch an 11% chance and nothing shipped before midnight. That one paid 8%.
We said an undefeated wrestler was paying 49% on Saturday. Nurullo Aliev went into Saturday's card at 11-0 and 67 cents, and came out of it 12-0.
Lastly, we argued Lebron would keep doing absolutely nothing for one more day, because he had turned down $52.6 million, told the Lakers he was leaving and set no timetable at all. Unfortunately, he signed inside the window. The sign-by market resolved against us and the 7% went the other way.
The whale of the day
Three addresses spent $1,105,872 across five trades in 21 minutes this morning, all buying YES on CXMT's IPO closing above 400 billion yuan, all at 99.8 cents.
The arbitrage of the day
Today's widest gap was 18% on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped album chart. Kalshi had YES on ARIRANG at 2 cents while Polymarket had NO at 80 cents, so both sides together cost 82 cents and collect 22%.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
