Will the Fed hike at its September meeting?

Traders are giving a September hike an 88% chance, leaving only a narrow path for a surprise hold. But with the decision just hours away, the market may finally be offering the kind of short-term yield opportunity that is worth taking seriously.

Will Fuego or 9z Globant win the League of Legends global qualifier on September 16?

Fuego is heavily favored to win the final North American League of Legends qualifier. But 9z Globant has not lost a series since July, and the gap between the two teams may be far smaller than the market suggests.

Does Anthropic keep the top AI ranking by September 21?

Claude currently occupies every top-five position on LMArena, with Google’s nearest rival 13 points behind. A new model would need to appear, collect enough votes to qualify, and then overtake Anthropic’s entire top five before Monday morning. The market is offering only 3 cents for the upset, but the real question is whether any model can even get listed in time.

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 before 2027?

Bitcoin is 78 days past its June low and has recovered at a pace that still resembles previous cycle bottoms. The market gives a year-end move to $90,000 less than even odds, but the historical range points to a much more interesting possibility.

The whale of the day

One top Polymarket whale just erased $200,000 of weekend losses in a single evening. While his overall profile boasts a seven-figure bankroll, every single one of his 20 worst career losses sits in three specific major sports. Copy-traders mirroring his whole portfolio are unknowingly stepping into a minefield, leaving only one specific category of his wagers worth paying attention to.