Does Dan Sullivan keep his Alaska Senate seat in November?

Dan Sullivan has represented Alaska in the U.S. Senate since 2015, but he faces his toughest reelection fight yet this November. For the first time since capturing the seat by 2.13 points in 2014, Sullivan finds himself in a toss-up against Mary Peltola, who served Alaska's lone House seat from 2022 to 2025. The November 3 contest will unfold under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system, where ballots for trailing candidates get redistributed until one contender commands a majority. Polymarket traders see Peltola as the favorite at 68 cents, leaving Sullivan at just 32 cents.

Peltola's strength comes from her dominating performance in the August 18 open primary. She led outright with 82,244 votes and 49.54% of the tally, while Sullivan managed 68,726 votes and 41.40%. Her contract has climbed 11 cents since that result.

The problem is that the primary drew only 166,992 Alaskans, representing 27.74% of registered voters, compared to roughly 338,000 who turned out in 2024 when Donald Trump carried the state by 13.13 points.

On top of that, recent polling has failed to confirm Peltola's primary dominance. An AARP Alaska survey of 800 likely voters conducted September 8 to 11 showed Peltola ahead 46 to 41, though Sullivan led 49 to 42 among voters over 50, according to their September 17 release. 

Rasmussen found them deadlocked at 39 each on September 13 and 14 in their latest tracking. Alaska Survey Research simulated the ranked-choice rounds and produced Peltola 50.6 to Sullivan 49.4, a difference within the margin of error, as reported by Juneau Independent. We think the race will likely depend on whose name shows up most often as the backup choice. Let us explain.

All three candidates on the ballot besides Peltola are Republicans: Sullivan, a retired Petersburg teacher named Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., whom Trump branded an imposter, and Gerald Heikes. Rasmussen estimates the two minor Republicans hold 13% combined, while AARP puts them at 7%. When those candidates get eliminated, their voters will choose between two Republicans or let their ballot exhaust. And they are far more likely to transfer to Sullivan than to Peltola.

Alaska's only previous statewide ranked-choice Senate contest in 2022 lifted Lisa Murkowski 10.31 points across the rounds, but she attracted second choices from both parties. Peltola cannot expect the same crossover appeal. The more relevant comparison is the 2024 House race, where Nick Begich led by 2.04 points in round one and won by 2.44 after transfers. The eliminated candidate's ballots broke 4,817 to Begich, 2,724 to Peltola, and 6,295 exhausted. If we apply that pattern to a tied first round, then Sullivan retains the seat.

Of course, Peltola's strongest arguments center on fundraising and her track record of statewide victories. She raised $15.58 million to Sullivan's $11.1 million through June 30, although he preserved more cash on hand at $8.3 million against $6.09 million. She has also beaten Republicans in statewide elections twice before. Democratic-aligned super PACs also spent $1.2 million in the summer boosting minor Republicans, which was a deliberate effort to siphon those second-choice transfers Sullivan needs.

Even so, major forecasters treat this as a coin flip. The Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both rate it a toss-up, while Inside Elections shifted it to Tilt Republican on September 3. But a true toss-up should not trade at 68 cents. That mispricing is why we are buying Sullivan at 32 cents, positioning for a 212.5% return if he holds the seat on November 3.