Who wins Oklahoma's Republican runoff, Mazzei or Drummond?
Oklahoma's attorney general won June by 1,141 votes. The man who lost has since borrowed $11.6m. Is that enough to turn a runoff?
Gentner Drummond won Oklahoma's Republican primary for governor on June 16, and the prize for winning was another election. He beat Mike Mazzei by 1,141 votes out of more than 390,000, but neither man came near the majority Oklahoma requires, so the two of them go again on Tuesday.
The strange part is that Polymarket's runoff market has Mazzei, the man who lost in June, at 73 cents, and Drummond, who won it, at 27. Whoever the state Republican Party declares the winner on Tuesday night is the winner. There is just no third round.
73% probability is quite high for a man in a race decided by a mere 1,141 votes, and there is one measurement of what Oklahoma Republicans think now. Cole Hargrave Snodgrass asked 600 likely runoff voters between August 6 and 8 and found them split 44 to 44.
Possibly, the high probability is due to Trump endorsing Mazzei on May 30, more than two months before those calls were made. Governor Kevin Stitt had endorsed him too. So had Jake Merrick, who took 58,341 votes in June and pointed all of them at Mazzei.
Runoffs here draw 30% to 40% fewer voters, only registered Republicans can vote, and the people who bother in late August are the most committed. Among voters who call themselves Trump Republicans, Mazzei leads 62 to 22.
Despite all of the above, Mazzei is not in a perfect position. He lent his own campaign $11.6m, a state record, and spent it fast enough to enter the final two weeks with only $151,735. Drummond, on the other hand, has $1,009,347 left.
If one wants an asymmetric setup, buying Drummond at 27 cents is quite logical: a 44–44 poll of likely runoff voters means he only has to win one time in four to break even, and the market is pricing him as if he will do worse than that. However, with the sheer number of facts presented (Trump’s endorsement, the endorsements from Stitt and Merrick, the typical 30–40% drop in turnout that leaves the most committed Republicans, and Mazzei’s 62–22 lead among those who call themselves Trump voters), we personally think Mazzei is still the more likely winner on Tuesday.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
