Who replaces Seth Moulton, Dan Koh or Tram Nguyen?
One of these two has every advantage a Democratic primary can hand a candidate. The other has a reason to think it will not be enough.
Seth Moulton is giving up a House seat he has held since 2015 to run against Ed Markey for the Senate. The Democratic primary to replace him in Massachusetts's 6th District is on September 1. Early voting opens tomorrow, and Polymarket's MA-06 market has Dan Koh at 89.5 cents and Tram Nguyen at 9.4 cents. Four other Democrats share just a cent.
The contract settles on the nominee, and in a district the Marblehead Independent rates 11 points more Democratic than the country, the nominee is the next congressman. The market's own description dates the primary to September 15, two weeks late.
So the question is whether a man holding every advantage can lose a six-way primary in which a quarter of voters had not chosen anybody three weeks ago.
Koh was Marty Walsh's chief of staff at Boston City Hall and at the Labor Department, and then a Biden White House aide. He has raised $4.5m and holds $3.6m of it without lending himself a dollar. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris both appear in his television ad, the Massachusetts AFL-CIO has endorsed him, and Walsh is knocking doors for him through primary day.
Nguyen is an Andover state representative and former legal aid lawyer, carried by the UAW, SEIU's state council and Progressive Mass. She has raised $711,000, a dollar for every six of Koh's.
John Beccia, a Lynnfield fintech executive, has lent himself about $3m and spends it calling Koh and Nguyen corrupt politicians.
Koh's own survey, by Global Strategy Group from July 30 to August 2, had Koh at 34, Beccia at 15 and Nguyen at 14 with 24% undecided. Nguyen's own, in late May, had Nguyen at 28 and Koh at 18. Unfortunately, there is no independent poll of the race at all.
Ten cents is cheap if the May numbers were the real ones. But none of the usual signs of a favorite in trouble have appeared. No outside group has come in against Koh, no rival has consolidated the field, and the hardest attack on him in the June debate was his father's wealth.
That undecided quarter is the only thing left that can beat Koh, and it has had three weeks to move while nobody outside the two campaigns was watching.
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