Who wins MLS Coach of the Year?
Why is 86% of the money in this market on coaches who can't win? We explain the odds and who the real pick is.
Major League Soccer picks a coach of the year every November, and Polymarket currently lists 46 of them. The biggest bet anybody has placed here is $30,189 on Nico Estévez, who was fired by Austin on May 18.
Next comes $29,953 on Pablo Mastroeni, whose Real Salt Lake sit eighth in the West. Then $11,244 on Bradley Carnell, who won this award last November and was sacked by Philadelphia six months later with his club bottom of the league.
Those three men account for 86% of every dollar ever traded in this market. But none of them can win it. Two of them do not even have a job. So, who can?
There's one man. B.J. Callaghan has run Nashville since July 2024, and before that he took charge of the United States national team for seven games in 2023. His club has 49 points from 21 matches, which is 9 more than anybody else in America, and has let in fewer goals than any other club in the country. Nobody is close.
However, he has a mere $173 of volume behind his name.
This award is easy to predict. The playoffs do not count, so it is decided on the regular season alone. Three groups vote, and each one is worth a third of the ballot: the players, the coaching staffs, and the media.
Historically, all three keep picking the same man. For example, seven of the last 10 awards went to the coach whose club finished top of the whole league, and the remaining 3 of the 10 went to a coach whose club finished second.
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