What does whale wallet know about an American invasion of Iran?
Can somebody be wrong 13 times in a row, be down over $100,000, and still be an insider?
Just after three in the morning New York time on Thursday, our alert system flagged a wallet called xm39 that sold 973,098 shares of an American invasion of Iran for $136,233.
The account opened on January 29 with a deposit of $9.99 and a $5.40 bet on the Chicago Bulls to beat the Indiana Pacers. For five months, it wagered $50 here and $200 there on basketball. Then in late July it took in $99,999.80, and $474,412 arrived over the following four weeks across nine transfers, almost all of it aimed at one contract: whether the United States invades Iran before 2027.
He bought at 31 cents. Then at 30, 29, 28, 27, 26, 25, 24, 21, 20, 18, 17, and 16.
For him to win, per the rules, America must begin an operation meant to take and hold a piece of Iranian ground before December 31. Bombing does not count. The contract costs 12.5 cents, much lower than his average entry.
Yet, he has not walked away. He withdrew $167,885 on Thursday and still owns 365,423 shares at an average of 23 cents.
Somebody who buys a war at 31 cents and again at 16 either knows something or believes something. The question is then: is this individual an insider or merely another gambler trying his luck?
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
