Will Iran fire a missile on Saudi Arabia again before September 15?

Polymarket asks whether Iran will fire on Saudi Arabia by September 15. The contract trades at 10%, which is quite low for a country six months into a war.

This war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel bombed roughly 500 targets inside Iran in a single day and killed the Supreme Leader. Iran fired back across the Gulf, and Saudi Arabia was one of the places it fired at.

On March 27, six ballistic missiles and 29 drones hit Prince Sultan Air Base, the American air base an hour southeast of Riyadh. A surveillance aircraft was destroyed, and a dozen United States troops were wounded. Across the whole campaign, Saudi Arabia absorbed 38 missiles and 435 drones.

But then Iran stopped.

Riyadh last said out loud that missiles had come from Iran on April 7, when it shot eleven of them down over the Eastern Province. That was 144 days ago. Reuters reported that Saudi jets had quietly struck Iranian launch sites in late March, that the two governments talked afterward, and that they reached an understanding to stop.

According to Polymarket's rules for this market, a strike counts here only if Iran claims it or the launch is confirmed to have come from Iranian soil, and the rules designate the Houthis as a group whose attacks do not count.

The clause was tested a bit more than a week ago, when on August 19, the government of the United Arab Emirates announced that two ballistic missiles had been launched from Iran towards its waters, and banned all trade with Tehran. However, Tehran called the accusation a false flag.

We believe it’s highly improbable that Iran will launch a strike against Saudi Arabia in the near future. Currently, America hasn’t fired any missiles towards Iran for nearly a month. Neither side has provoked Iran to take any action. Thus, we are betting against a strike before September 15th on Polymarket. The 'No' contract costs 90 cents and offers an 11% return in less than 3 weeks.