Here’s what happened in prediction markets today

LeBron is getting paid to do nothing, and so can you

LeBron turned down $52.6M, told the Lakers he's leaving, and set no timetable to sign anything. The market gives tomorrow an 8% shot. Betting he does nothing for one more day pays 7%.

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The World Cup final's record audience is off by 18 million

Every headline said 66 million watched Spain beat Argentina. The Nielsen number that actually settles the market is 47.89 million. Trusting the rulebook over the headlines pays 7%.

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Andrew Tate isn't walking out of a Miami cell this month

He fled Romania on a private jet and landed in federal custody with no bail. The market still gives him a 2% shot at freedom by July 31. Betting no pays 118.65% annualized.

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The Bank of Japan trap nobody can call

The yen is at a 40-year low and the Bank of Japan can't decide whether to hike in September. Neither can the market, split down to the last 14 cents. Some traps are best watched from the sidelines.

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You don't need to understand AI to profit from the next Claude

A new Claude Opus is due any day, just not in the next few hours. The market gives a release today an 11% chance, so betting it doesn't ship before midnight pays 8%.

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The whale of the day

Someone dropped $1,143,855 on YES that Trump makes the World Cup champions photo, buying at 99.9 cents to win roughly $600 in seconds.

The arbitrage of the day

Today we have flagged a 20% gap on the Bank of Russia's July rate decision. Kalshi had YES at 40 cents while Polymarket had NO at 40 cents, so you could have owned both sides for 80 cents and collected 25%.