Andrew Tate isn't walking out of federal custody this month

Andrew Tate spent the last year telling everyone he was a free man, and on July 19, he and his brother ended up in a Miami cell. Polymarket's Tate release market gives him a 2.9 cent chance of being out of custody by July 31. It may sound low until you look at how he got there, at which point 2.9 starts to look quite generous.

The brothers fled Romania on a private jet and were taken into custody in Miami by US Marshals. They are now in federal detention fighting extradition to the United Kingdom. And...the charges are not minor.

The Crown Prosecution Service is seeking them on 21 counts between them, including rape, human trafficking and actual bodily harm, reported by seven women over alleged conduct between 2010 and 2017. Fox News summed up the immediate outcome plainly: the Tate brothers will remain behind bars for now while the UK pursues them.

Their next appearance is July 27 before a US magistrate judge, and extradition cases do not resolve at a first or second hearing. As the reporting notes, these proceedings stretch on for weeks or months, with multiple hearings and the possibility of appeals before anyone is put on a plane or set free. Eight days is not the timeframe in which any of that concludes.

And the one thing that could spring them early, a grant of bail, is the one thing their own conduct argues against. A judge weighing release has to weigh flight risk, and the defendant in front of him just fled another country's prosecution on a chartered jet. There is no cleaner disqualifier.

Buying no on a July 31 release at 98.3 cents pays a full dollar, or 1.73% over eight days. If you think that's low, it's not. It's 118.65% annualized.