Trump's red tie is the most overpriced thing in Las Vegas
Twenty of these markets have already settled on Polymarket, and the color everybody is buying just won 6 of them
Trump speaks at the Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas on Wednesday afternoon. Polymarket's tie color market prices a 66% probability for red, 25% for other, 12% for blue, and just 2% for yellow. Volume is $7,000.
Twenty of these markets have settled since February, and the stats were:
- Red: 6
- Other: 9
- Blue: 5
- Yellow: none
The most useful of the twenty is the UFC market in June. On the morning of the event, red traded at 72% and blue at 8%. Guess what? Blue won.
During the five event-specific markets, other won three times, red once, and blue once. By the way, two of those three others were due to unforeseen circumstances. The April Correspondents' Dinner never happened after a man opened fire outside the venue, and the market settled other on the cancellation clause. And in July, Trump arrived in a black bow tie to a black-tie dinner.
This is one of the riskiest markets on Polymarket, because nothing decides it except what Trump reaches for on Wednesday morning. It's basically a gamble.
However, 20 settled markets give red 6 wins and blue 5, which is close to a coin flip between the two, and yet the board prices them 66 cents against 12 cents. That is an 8x payout on an outcome the record says happens almost as often as the favorite.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
