Sunday is the only day Trump rarely insults someone
This exact Polymarket series has now run for 114 resolved days since April 11, and only 13 of those days settled no
On Sunday, August 2, Donald Trump did not publicly insult anybody, and a Polymarket contract paid out for it. Polymarket's daily Trump insult market charges between 73 and 90 and a half cents for each remaining day of August. The three Sundays left before the last one cost about 15 cents to bet against.
Quite recently he was at Bedminster. He made nine Truth Social posts all day, per the archive, and seven of them were bare links to other people's articles. He posted 44 times the day before and 49 the day after.
The one post with his own words in it was a golf score. Yahoo Sports called it trashing members of his own golf club. It named nobody, so it failed the rule requiring a non-fictional individual, and the contract settled no about 35 hours after the day ended.
This series has run since April 11:
- 114 days have resolved. 101 settled yes, and 13 settled no, a no rate of 11.4%
- The monthly no rate went 10.0% in April, 0.0% in May, 10.3% in June, and 22.6% in July
- Of the 17 Sundays covered, four settled no, or 23.5%
- Of the 16 Wednesdays covered, none has ever settled no, and Trump speaks in Las Vegas on Wednesday
- Days that settled no averaged 12.4 posts. Days that settled yes averaged 25.5
Today's contract costs about 93 cents and pays 7% by midnight. It is, in our opinion, the safest day on the board at the moment. No Wednesday in this series has ever settled no, none of the 16 covered so far, and this afternoon Trump is on a stage in Las Vegas in front of cameras, for possibly an hour-long speech. At least one insult should land on someone by the time he walks off that stage.
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