Traders still think a former South Korean president might walk free in 2026
Prediction markets are pricing whether former South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol will leave custody before 2027
Saturday is Liberation Day in South Korea, the date on which Korean presidents traditionally hand out pardons. Last August, Lee Jae-myung pardoned 836,687 people on it.
Polymarket's Yoon out of custody before 2027 market prices the former president at 7.4 cents to be free by December 31. The No side costs 92.6 and returns 8% over 140 days.
On Monday, the Justice Ministry confirmed there will be no Liberation Day special pardon at all this year, only expanded parole for model prisoners. No preliminary review committee has been convened, which officials said makes a Saturday pardon physically impossible. Korea has not issued a pardon since Christmas.
This is extremely important because the pardon is not one route out for a Korean ex-president. It is the only one that has ever worked. Roh Tae-woo served 767 days, Chun Doo-hwan 750, Lee Myung-bak 958, Park Geun-hye 1,736. Every single one left jail on a pardon. Every pardon came in December. And every single one came from a friendly successor after the sentence was final.
Yoon has served about 400 days. He reaches Chun's 750 on roughly July 29, 2027, 7 months after this contract expires. The president who would have to sign is Lee Jae-myung, whose government prosecuted him through 3 special counsels, and whose party sent an Amnesty Act amendment barring pardons for insurrection convicts through a subcommittee in February.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
