Beijing’s Bitcoin ban is tighter than anyone admits
A million dollars has been traded on a question Beijing answered in writing in February, and the answer was not the one buyers wanted
Polymarket's Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027 market is priced at 2.75 cents and has taken $1,035,890 in volume.
This is the third consecutive listing of the same question with verbatim identical resolution language. "By March 31" ran to March 2025 and took $926,083. "In 2025" ran to December and took $1,778,995. Both resolved No. Franchise volume is about $3.74 million, and roughly $2.7 million of it has already expired at zero.
The existence of this market comes from the annual glimmer of hope that China will eventually lift its ban on Bitcoin. For example, in 2025 we had:
- Pan Gongsheng's Lujiazui speech
- Shanghai's stablecoin study session
- a Reuters report on a State Council roadmap.
But it didn't last long. Brokerages were told to stop publishing on it, Ant Group and JD.com suspended their Hong Kong plans, and 13 agencies reaffirmed the ban in November. On February 6, 8 agencies issued Notice Yinfa No. 42, which widened the 2021 prohibition: yuan-pegged stablecoins barred, tokenization of real-world assets unlawful, extraterritorial reach to offshore subsidiaries, and any individual investing in virtual currencies left with their "related civil legal acts invalid."
Hong Kong keeps producing headlines that look like the opposite, and fails this contract in 2 ways. The HKMA is not the PRC government. Every licensed Hong Kong stablecoin is pegged to the Hong Kong dollar, and mainland residents were excluded from day one.
Which is why we are betting on No, at 97.25, to earn 2.83% over 140 days, about 7.4% annualized.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
