The tennis market is offering 257% on the world number one

Aryna Sabalenka has won the last two US Opens, which no woman had managed since Serena Williams. Polymarket's women's winner market prices her at 28 cents to make it three, and that pays 257% when the final is played on September 12.

She is the right favorite. She is world number one on 8,550 points and has spent 92 weeks there. She beat Coco Gauff in the Miami final in March, and she beat Naomi Osaka at Indian Wells, in Madrid, and at Roland Garros in one season. She is also the only woman in this field to have won it back to back.

If one name is too much risk, the board lets you buy the top ten instead, from Sabalenka down to Karolina Muchova. That costs 83.1 cents at the ask and pays 20.3%, and every name inside it has a real case.

• Elena Rybakina at 9.2 cents is world number two and won the Australian Open in January.
• Iga Swiatek at 9 cents won here in 2022, and Gauff at 8.8 cents won here in 2023 and reached the Wimbledon semifinal this month.
• Osaka at 7 cents has already won this tournament twice and is up 68% in a month.
• Mirra Andreeva at 6.3 cents won Roland Garros and Linda Noskova at 3.9 cents won Wimbledon, so this year's two newest major champions cost ten cents together.

Still, neither option needs to be executed today because the biggest thing about this tournament has not happened yet. On August 27, the US Open makes the draw. Names come out, and it is settled who plays whom, and who sits on which side of the sheet.

Before the draw, two warm-up tournaments come first. Toronto starts on Sunday and Cincinnati on August 13, each about a week long. That is where you find out who is hitting the ball well.

So, if one wants to lower the risk even further, then buying on the 27th would be the preferred choice.