The alien market is offering 7% for backing the obvious
$78m has gone through every version of this question since 2023 and not one cent of it has ever paid out on a yes
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On July 21, the Pentagon's anomaly office sent Congress its annual report and said not one resolved case pointed to advanced technology, and that it found no evidence of recovered materials. Polymarket's alien confirmation market did not move. December still costs 6.5 cents, so betting against it pays about 7% by New Year, on a leg carrying $36.4m.
The market resolves Yes only if the President, a Cabinet member, a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists. Files, videos, and hearings do not do it.
And, unfortunately, everything in 2026 didn't even come close to resolving the market:
- Trump directed every agency to release its files in February and said in the same remarks that he did not know if they were real.
- Asked directly whether aliens exist, the defense secretary said we will see.
- Four tranches of files have gone out since May 8, and the Pentagon labels the material unresolved cases it cannot make a determination about.
- The anomaly office reviewed 319 new sightings and put 191 in an archive for want of data.
- The Harvard astronomer hired to lead the White House council on this says unknown does not mean extraterrestrial.
This question was written for 2023, for 2024, for 2025, and four more times for 2026. Six deadlines, six No's, $78m traded across all of them, and nothing has ever paid. The closest anyone came was NASA calling a Mars finding the closest we have ever come and then labelling it potential in the same sentence.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
