One whale put $2.91m on Bitcoin holding $55,000 and Ethereum $1,500
A wallet that did not exist in February is now among the biggest crypto accounts on the Polymarket, betting on one specific idea
On Wednesday, a Polymarket wallet called JnStrtPrdctnMrkts made $302,000. On Thursday, it made $155,000 more, and by Friday afternoon, $86,560. The account opened in March and sits 17th in crypto predictions worldwide.
It needed only 106 bets to achieve those returns. That is $7.96m of volume at $75,094 a ticket and $817,415 kept, which is 10.3% of every dollar he has ever put at risk. The traders around him in Polymarket's crypto rankings got there by trading thousands of times at far bigger volumes.
Those 106 predictions are the same bet in different sizes. He sells crash insurance on Bitcoin and Ethereum, 4,302,152 'No' shares across 15 dip contracts.
Position examples:
- 848,963 'No' on Ethereum touching $1,500
- 657,495 'No' on Ethereum touching $1,000
- 617,501 'No' on Bitcoin touching $55,000
Overall, his book costs $2.91m and pays $4.30m if none of the 15 levels are reached, so he risks $2.91m to win $1.39m and has to be right about 68% of the time to break even.
Holding a book that size leaves him nothing to defend it with. Positions are $3,793,211 against $67,419 of cash, so if a level hits, he cannot average down, hedge, or do anything except watch the other 14. His only protection is distance, and he has already watched that distance close once in June.
Ethereum bottomed at $1,566 on June 26, 4.2% above the level that erases his largest position, and the two months it took to get there cost him $179,080. But he spent them buying. The contracts he holds at 47 cents were bought while Ethereum sat a few percent from taking them out.
That is where the majority of his money came from. July and August paid him $945,160, of which $623,510 landed this month, 76% of everything he has earned since March, almost all of it on inventory bought while he was losing.
Interestingly, he is doubling down. This week he added more to multiple of those positions.
If Bitcoin falls 30% to $55,000, or Ethereum falls 40% to $1,500, he loses millions. He has to survive 132 days for the market to play in his favor. The question is: will he, or will he not?
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
