New Zealand's election is 38 days too late to settle this market
Christopher Luxon survived his 2nd confidence vote in four months yesterday morning, and Polymarket still prices him at 7.5 cents to be gone by Sep 30
Christopher Luxon walked into a caucus room in Wellington yesterday morning and walked out still the prime minister of New Zealand. It was the second time in 4 months. By that afternoon, Chris Penk, the defense minister who had challenged him, had lost every portfolio he held and announced he would not seek re-election. Luxon's statement ran 4 sentences and ended with "we're moving on."
Polymarket's Christopher Luxon out by September 30 market has him at 7.5 cents to be gone anyway. The No side costs 92.5 and pays a dollar in 48 days, a return of 8.1%, about 62% annualized.
Most people will think 7.5 cents is a good assymteric bet but it's not.
Luxon announced on January 21 an important date: November 7. The House rises September 24, Parliament dissolves October 1, writ day is October 4. Every one of those falls after this market has already settled, and dissolution misses by a single day.
Even inside the window, it would not pay, because the Cabinet Manual is explicit that the incumbent government continues in office until a new administration is appointed.
In 2023, the country voted on October 14, and Luxon was sworn in on November 27, 6 weeks during which Chris Hipkins held the job he had just lost.
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