Common sense in geopolitics pays 39% by New Year

Last Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, Romanian F-16 jets shot down a Russian drone over Romania. But Polymarket's NATO Russia clash market did not settle. It went from 18% to 30% and has already started falling back.

The reason is the rulebook that many, unfortunately, ignore. To settle yes, NATO forces and Russian forces have to shoot at each other directly. Missiles, artillery, or gunfire. The rules then list what does not count. Flying into someone else's airspace does not count. Firing a warning shot does not count. Hacking does not count. Crashing into something on purpose does not count, and the rules name the Russian jet that clipped an American drone in 2023 as the example.

Most importantly, shooting down a one-way attack drone that was aimed at somebody else does not count. A Shahed crossing Romania is on its way to Ukraine. Ukraine is not in NATO. So Romania can shoot down as many as it likes and nothing changes.

For example, nothing from the list below has counted so far:

• 19 Russian drones flew over Poland in September 2025, and four were shot down
• Three Russian fighter jets sat over Estonia for 12 minutes
• In May, a Russian drone hit a block of flats in Galati and hurt a woman and a child, the first civilians hurt on NATO soil in this war
• Romania has counted about 29 drones crossing its border since 2022.

The last event that would have counted was back on November 24, 2015. A Turkish F-16 shot down a Russian Su-24. That is one event in 10.5 years.

And traders are still charging 29 cents for the next one. They are charging it in December, which holds $871,000 and has traded since January. August and October were created on July 26 and hold about $1,100 each. Betting against them returns 39% by New Year.