Nobody has formally signed this thing since December 2020
Nobody has formally signed an Abraham Accords normalization agreement since Morocco on December 22, 2020
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In May, Trump got the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan and Bahrain onto one conference call and asked them to make peace with Israel. According to a US official who described the call to Axios, there was silence on the line, and Trump joked and asked if they were still there.
Polymarket prices the same question two different ways. Its market on which country joins lists 12 names, from Somaliland at 24 cents down to Oman at four.
Meanwhile, the market asking whether any country joins at all costs 35 cents.
The 2025 version of that second market was worded identically. Trump announced on November 6 that Kazakhstan had joined, and the price jumped from 19% to 93.5% in a day. On December 26, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland, and Somaliland said it would join too. But the market still resolved no on January 2.
According to Polymarket, it requires a formal signing, acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Accords. An announcement is not that. A recognition is not that. Since Morocco signed on December 22, 2020, the number of countries that have cleared this bar is zero, and seven months of 2026 have produced no accession of any kind.
Another important point is that most of these 12 countries have already answered:
- Oman's foreign minister said in March that Oman "will not normalize with Israel"
- Pakistan's said in May that nothing changes until there is a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders
- Syria's president ruled it out on television in November and is negotiating a security agreement instead, which the people negotiating it describe as a step before normalization
- Egypt and Jordan made peace with Israel in 1979 and 1994
- Saudi Arabia holds the only real card, and Trump has said its nuclear deal depends on joining, though the text he signed contains no such condition.
Buying the side that says nobody signs costs 66 cents and returns about 52% by December 31. It loses if Riyadh takes the trade, which means Mohammed bin Salman dropping a precondition his own foreign ministry calls a strategic principle.
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