A $10B company is trying to buy a $52B company
GameStop is worth $9.94 billion and is bidding $55.5 billion for a company worth $51.67 billion
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Ryan Cohen owns 9.8% of eBay, has cleared the antitrust filing, and told Bloomberg on July 16 that he is "coming for eBay one way or another." Polymarket's market on whether he gets it this year trades at 14 cents.
GameStop offered $125 a share on May 3, which was a 46% premium at the time. eBay's board rejected it nine days later as "neither credible nor attractive." Since then eBay shares have climbed to $116.37. The same $125 is now a premium of 7.4%, and Cohen has said he will not "negotiate against myself." So the offer on the table asks eBay's owners to hand over the company for what they can already get.
GameStop is worth only $10 billion. eBay is worth $52 billion. Half of the $55.5 billion offer is cash, which means $27.75 billion against total liquidity of $9.7 billion, and $3.97 billion of that went in July on settling the eBay options into actual shares. The rest comes from a bank letter saying TD Securities is "highly confident" it could raise $20 billion. The other half is GameStop stock, which at today's price means printing about 1.25 billion new shares against 449 million outstanding.
Add to all of the above the vote. On June 17, eBay shareholders were asked to lower the threshold for calling a special meeting. It failed, 210,071,641 shares against to 156,901,312 for. That was the mechanism Cohen would have used to put the question to eBay's owners this year. Without it, his next opening is eBay's 2027 annual meeting, and this market closes on December 31.
So the only route left in 2026 runs through the eleven directors who already said no and were all re-elected in June with big majorities. They have to change their minds voluntarily, in five months, about a price that is now barely above the market.
The thing that revives it is a bad quarter. eBay reports on August 5. If the shares slide back toward $95, that same $125 becomes a 30% premium again and the board's arithmetic changes overnight.
Buying the no side costs 87 cents and returns about 15% by December 31, should no agreement get signed. Keep in mind that an announced deal counts even if it never closes, but a rejected offer does not.
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