An invasion that never arrives pays 35% by New Year
Five months of war, 8,000 struck targets, and a dead supreme leader have left this market almost exactly where it started
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On Thursday morning, American aircraft hit Revolutionary Guard sites across southern Iran and knocked out the power on Qeshm Island. Polymarket's market on whether America invades Iran before 2027 sits at 27 cents, which means betting against it pays about 35% when the year closes on December 31.
To settle yes, America has to start a military operation meant to take a piece of Iranian land and keep it.
That has already been tested in April when American special forces landed in central Iran, held a runway for two days with about 100 men, blew up their own aircraft and left. That settled Polymarket's separate troops-entering-Iran market yes on $269m, but not the invasion one.
The same argument was settled elsewhere in January, when American commandos took Venezuela's president out of his own capital and flew him to New York. Because the troops left again, Polymarket ruled it was not an invasion and withheld $10.5m.
There is one path that settles yes, though, and that is if America takes Kharg Island, which ships about 90% of Iran's oil. Trump has said it out loud, and the Pentagon has even drawn up island-seizure plans.
However, it's just not realistic. A former head of US Central Command puts the job at 100,000 troops. America has only 50,000 in the whole region and one carrier nearby. And Polymarket's own Kharg market prices that same island changing hands at 12%, against 27% here.
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