A Bitcoin rally that never arrives pays 11% by September 1

Bitcoin has not touched $72,500 since June 1. Polymarket's Bitcoin August price market still charges 11 cents for it to get back there before the month is out, which puts the other side at 90 cents and a return of about 11% when the market closes on September 1.

The ticket pays on a touch. Bitcoin has to print $72,500 once, for a second, at any hour of the next 29 days. However, it trades at $63,180 this morning, so that is a climb of 14.8%. Here's why that's unlikely to happen.

Bitcoin came into August already down 29% on the year. That has happened only four times before, in 2014, 2015, 2018 and 2022, and the largest rally any of those four Augusts produced was just 9.6%.

• August is Bitcoin's worst month of the year, down in nine of the last 13 and in each of the last four, by 14%, 11.3%, 8.7% and 6.5%
• Bitcoin is 50% below the $126,219 record it set on October 6, and has closed under it every day since
• Across 300 days of this decline, Bitcoin has gained 15% inside a month 23 times, or only 7.6% of them
• Its largest 29-day run of the whole drawdown was 20.5%, starting on March 29
• Bitcoin fell to $58,000 in late June when the May inflation figure came in at 4.1%, creating a new lower low
• July was Bitcoin's best month since April, up 7.3%, consistent with its usual annual pattern

On top of that, last week's news didn't help either. The Federal Reserve held rates on July 29, and three of its own officials voted to raise them. This is the most hawkish vote in nearly 10 years, hence why September now prices a rise. Not to mention, typically, since 2025, after every FOMC meeting, Bitcoin has been forming new lower lows.

So, buying No $72,500 at 90 cents to make 11% in 29 days is quite a lucrative opportunity given the circumstances.