How to turn a 5% Bitcoin move into 150% before August

July is the most bullish month Bitcoin has. Bitcoin trades around $66,651 at the time of writing this, up roughly 14% on the month, and Polymarket's what price will Bitcoin hit in July market still prices a tag of $70,000 before August at just 40 cents.

During the average July, Bitcoin is up nearly 10%, and the acceleration almost always arrives in the second half. Even the years everyone remembers as brutal, mainly 2015, 2018, and 2022, all followed the same script.

That is the whole case for the touch. From about $66,650, Bitcoin needs one 5% push to tag $70,000, and it is a touch market, so the level only has to print once before Aug 1 to pay a full dollar. It doesn't need to hold. It doesn't need to be the close. It needs a single wick into a round number sitting right where the back-half seasonal move has carried price time and again.

Buying the $70,000 touch at 40 cents pays a full dollar, a 150% return, if Bitcoin does in the second half of July what it has done in nearly every July on record. However, a July bounce like this is the seasonal exhale a market takes on its way lower, right before August and September, historically Bitcoin's weakest stretch. Once the calendar turns, the better position is against Bitcoin, which is the case we made in our previous piece about gold vs Bitcoin.