The Fed already told everyone what happens on July 29

The Federal Reserve meets on July 29, and bettors on Polymarket's July Fed decision market have already written the ending. "No change" trades at 95.7 cents. The rate cut that carried real probability earlier this year has been crushed to under one cent, and even the hawkish scenario, a 25 basis point hike, sits at just 4 cents.

The reason the cut died is in the data. The June jobs report showed payrolls rising just 57,000 against expectations of 115,000, but unemployment actually fell to 4.2%, and inflation has refused to cool enough to hand doves an argument.

For the Fed to cut in 12 days, it would need evidence that the economy is breaking down, and a falling unemployment rate says it is not. For the Fed to hike, it would need inflation to visibly reaccelerate, and nothing in the recent prints suggests that. Central banks move when the data forces them to, and right now the data is pushing in neither direction, which leaves standing still as the only decision the committee can defend.

Buying "no change" at 95.7 cents pays a full dollar on July 29. That is roughly a 4.5% return in 12 days, which, annualized, runs north of 100%. The position loses only if a shock print between now and the meeting forces the one thing this Fed hates doing, and nothing on the calendar appears capable of doing so.