$8 million says Israeli boots stay in Lebanon this year

Israeli soldiers hold about a fifth of Lebanon. It is a strip roughly 10 kilometers deep along the border, covering more than 150 towns and villages. Polymarket's withdrawal market gives a 12% chance they are all gone by December 31, and less than 1% that they are gone this week.

The market wants every soldier out. Pulling back a little does not count. Promising to leave later does not count either.

This is very important, because on June 26 Israel, Lebanon and the United States signed an agreement that sounds like the start of an exit. It has no date in it. Israel leaves a village once Hezbollah's weapons and tunnels there are gone, and once Israel agrees they are gone. There is no deadline, and the text does not name an outside body to check the work.

On July 20, three villages were named. Israeli forces withdrew from one of them, Zawtar al-Gharbiya. The other two sat outside the area Israel holds, so no pullout was needed there. On July 26, the Lebanese army said the handover was still not finished.

Both sides have also said in public that they will not do their half. Netanyahu, on June 24: "As long as I am prime minister, we will maintain the security zone in southern Lebanon." His defense minister, Israel Katz, says Israel will not move a millimeter until Hezbollah gives up its weapons. Hezbollah's leader Naim Qassem said on July 9 that "not a single clause of this agreement will pass". He has warned that if the Lebanese army tries to take those weapons, Lebanon risks a civil war.

So the bet is not really about Israel. Israel has tied its exit to Hezbollah disarming, and under the agreement Israel judges when that has happened. Both sides prefer the position they are already in. That is why four withdrawal deadlines have come and gone since January 26, 2025.

Not to mention, UN peacekeepers leave Lebanon on December 31. The Security Council decided last August that their mandate would not be renewed again. After that, no international force is monitoring southern Lebanon. So, Israel's stated reason for staying will be much stronger on January 1.

Betting that Israel is still there returns 12.4% by New Year. To lose, Hezbollah has to hand over its weapons, and Israel has to accept the count within five months. Neither side has moved toward that since the agreement was signed a month ago.