Will Eric Barlow or Megan Degenfelder win Wyoming's primary?

Mark Gordon is term-limited, so for the first time since 2018, Wyoming picks a governor with no incumbent on the ballot. Eric Barlow spent 13 years in the legislature, served as Speaker, and runs on answering to Wyoming rather than Washington.

On the other hand, Megan Degenfelder is the sitting Superintendent of Public Instruction and has run since day one on Donald Trump's endorsement, which is now on her website, in a phone town hall, and on merchandise.

Polymarket says Barlow wins, and we agree. Here's why.

Nobody has polled this race independently. The only public evidence about these voters is the campaign finance filings, which are a count of people who have already done something for one of these candidates.

In a race that has raised about $3m, Barlow raised the most, 74% of it from individuals, and he logged more than 5x as many individual contributions as anyone else on the ballot.

Degenfelder raised roughly $380,000 less, and the question is where it came from.

• Individuals: $365,500
• PACs: $392,500
• Loans: $522,000, of which $497,000 came from her father, which is about 40% of her whole campaign.

Plus, in 2022 Degenfelder won the superintendent nomination with 40.6% against Brian Schroeder's 38.1%, 3,565 votes apart in a five-way field. She has never been the first choice of a majority of Wyoming Republicans, and tonight the man splitting the field is Brent Bien, who took 29.6% against a sitting governor in that same election and is standing in her lane. According to the facts, it just doesn't look like she could win.