Can Ukraine recapture Crimea after losing ground in August?
How does Ukraine retake a peninsula after spending August bombing the two railway bridges leading onto it?
In the first half of August, Ukraine struck the Syvash and Chonhar railway bridges, the crossings that carry Russian traffic out of occupied Kherson and into Crimea. The Institute for the Study of War logged it in its August 14 assessment.
An army cuts a bridge to stop things moving across it. If you intend to drive your own armor over that bridge before New Year, you leave it standing and try to take it intact. Ukraine's own targeting this month says it wants Crimea starved of supplies.
At the same time, the latest August 14 assessment has Russian forces taking Olenokostyantynivka and Zelene near Hulyaipole and consolidating southeast of Kostyantynivka. Ukraine's confirmed gains were local counterattacks near Oleksandrivka at the end of July, a couple of hundred kilometers north of Perekop, the isthmus five to seven kilometers wide that is the only land route in.
If anyone wants to win on this contract by buying yes, then Ukrainian soldiers must step on Crimean soil, still there the next morning, and with the map redrawn to show it. An announcement pays nothing. Even a signed settlement pays nothing unless control actually changes hands on the ground.
However, neither the war data nor the diplomacy suggests that's going to happen anytime soon. Sergei Lavrov spent August 14 rejecting any ceasefire that freezes the current front lines, and Russia turned down a Turkish and Ukrainian proposal to stop striking maritime targets in the Black Sea.
Considering all the things mentioned, we don’t foresee any scenario this year where Ukraine captures Crimea. Thus, we are betting on No, at 93 cents, to earn 7.5% over 135 days, or about 20% annualized.
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