Which party wins the most seats in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern votes for its state parliament on Sep 20. We explain who is ahead, what could still move it, and how our bet targets 8.7%.
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern is a German state on the Baltic coast, in the far northeast of the country. About 1.4 million people live there, and it was part of East Germany until 1990. On September 20, they vote for their state parliament, which then picks the person who runs the state.
Every poll says the AfD, Alternative for Germany, a far-right, anti-immigration party, will win. It is now the largest opposition party in the national parliament, and every other German party rules out sharing power with it. Polymarket's Mecklenburg-Vorpommern market puts the AfD at 92% to win the most seats, providing an 8.7% return in 20 days.
The last poll anybody took ran from August 4 to 11. It had the AfD at 36% and the Social Democrats at 29%, the center-left party of Manuela Schwesig, who has run the state since 2017.
The AfD has sat between 34 and 37 in every poll since January and has not moved. Everything that has moved has moved to Schwesig. She is up 10 points in a year, and voters like her more than her party: 49% want her running the state against 27% for the AfD's Leif-Erik Holm.
Something similar happened in Brandenburg, another eastern state, in 2024. The Social Democrats there polled behind the AfD all year, ran the whole campaign as a straight choice between the two of them, and won by 1.7 points. Every final poll had missed them by four to six. Schwesig is running the same campaign, line for line now.
So why is the AfD winning in the first place and why, perhaps most importantly, are they more likely to win in the end? Immigration. Germans have had enough of it. When asked about the last decade, 81% of Germans said illegal immigration was too high, while 57% said the same about legal immigration.
The whole country has turned hard on this matter recently. Over 21,000 people were deported last year, and the chancellor wants 80% of Syrian refugees sent home. But it's still not enough for Germans. And now, 37% trust the AfD the most on immigration. For comparison, five years ago, only 19% did.
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