How a 2‑month‑old Polymarket wallet plans to turn $12.9K Into $93.9K

Bitcoin bottomed on June 30 at $57,748. 9 days before that, a 2-month-old Polymarket account that had never placed a trade in its life deposited $13,117.54 and started buying the recovery.

The account is called btcuppp, and it has made three predictions since, which are really the same prediction at three different heights. 'Yes' on Bitcoin reaching $95,000 before December 31, 'yes' on $100,000, and 'yes' on $110,000. It collected 93,901 shares over 10 days at an average of 13.7 cents, mostly by resting bids on the book and letting sellers come to it.

Being early and being right are different things, and for six weeks this looked like the ordinary version of the story because Bitcoin fell another 10% after he finished buying. By August 2, the position was almost 50% underwater.

Then, on August 25, Bitcoin touched $81,000 for the first time since May. That afternoon, he was up $14,887.

At $78,414, Bitcoin now sits about 2% under the only line anyone is watching. Its 50-week moving average is $80,328, and Galaxy Research counts thirteen reclaims of that average across six bear markets since 2011, eleven of which held without a lower low afterward. In the longer bear markets, it arrived between 130 and 284 days after the bottom, by which point Bitcoin had already run 63% to 80%.

The question is then: if this is the bottom, will this wallet be able to almost 10x his bet by the end of the year?