This whale traded $364K on the Iran war and left for scraps

At 12:04 this afternoon, a Polymarket account called Detailed-Poison sold 466,942 shares of the US invasion market in one order at 78.1 cents, collecting $364,741. 90 seconds later, it sold the last 6,351 shares and held none of it.

Four days ago, he held none of it either.

The buying started at 01:34 on Thursday morning UTC, 50,000 shares at 70 cents, then 7,316 at 69, then 68,474 at 74 later that morning. At 02:08 on Sunday, he took another 347,003 at 77. That made 473,293 shares of the no side at an average of 75.7 cents, a position costing $358,281. Today all of it came back out for $369,687.

The profit was $11,406, which is 3.2% for four days.

This is the 4th time the account has run that same loop since late June, and all four made money.

• Early July, 12,245 shares bought at 82 cents and sold at 88, for $734.
• July 20, 30,920 shares at 71 cents, sold the next day at 73.5, for $777.
• July 25, 33,351 shares across 17 orders at 71.6 cents, the smallest of them 3.76 shares costing $2.67, sold two days later at 78.1, for $2,164.
• July 30 to today, the $358,281 position, for a $11,406 profit.

He has never bought the yes side, and he has never held anything to settlement. At the time of writing this, the account sits at $158,513 of trading profit on $12,371,369 of volume, which is 1.3% kept on every dollar traded. On July 31, it redeemed $175,089 from a Trump pardon market it had been buying at 99.8 cents, where the entire prize was two tenths of a cent.

We agree with his view that the U.S. is not going to invade Iran, but he should not have sold this early. It's a low-risk position, and simply winning on this trade would already put anyone in the top percentile on Polymarket, outperforming the vast majority of traders.