The perfect duopoly football trade that only lost once since 2004
Spain’s title has been won by five clubs in the past 31 seasons, with two of them accounting for 25 of those trophies
LaLiga opens Saturday with Alavés against Getafe, and Polymarket's LaLiga champion market has already reduced the season to two prices. Barcelona costs 54 cents, while Real Madrid costs 41 cents. If you buy both, then the pair costs 95 cents, so no matter which side wins, you capture 5.3% when the title settles by May 30.
The trade works because the two outcomes are mutually exclusive and together they are nearly the whole book. You are basically betting against the other 2 clubs, Atlético and Villarreal, who share about 5 cents of implied probability between them. There are two reasons behind this:
- In the last 20 seasons, the title has left Barcelona and Real Madrid exactly once: Atlético in 2021
- Across 31 seasons, only five clubs have won it, and this pair owns 25 of the trophies
The 20-year record is something we are not comfortable betting against. Thus, we are happy to buy both Barcelona and Real Madrid and lock in the roughly 5% edge against the rest of the field.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
