The best Trump trade today is the one you do not make
Trump is the only market on today's board where being right does not cover the cost of finding out
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Polymarket runs a contract on whether Donald Trump insults somebody by July 31. It has run every day since April. We counted all 107 that have settled. He did it on 96 of them. That is 89.7%, and today's contract costs 88 cents, so the crowd's bias looks about right.
Across April and May, he cleared the bar on 49 days out of 51. In July he has missed six times out of 27, a rate of 77.8%. So, on one hand, 88 cents is fair. On the other, it's quite expensive.
What you are really predicting here is a man's mood on a given day. Whether Donald Trump feels like being rude in public, and whether the people writing it up agree that he was. Nobody knows what is in his head. That includes the people who work for him.
July shows how little the pattern helps you. On the 24th, he stood up at the correspondents' dinner and mocked Jane Fonda, Barack Obama and Gavin Newsom by name. The next day nothing qualified.
The size of the market makes it worse. Only $6,131 has traded on today's contract. The best offer to buy it back from you is $141. So even if you read him correctly, you cannot get a real position on it, and you cannot get out of one quickly.
That is a gamble on somebody's mood, in a market too small to pay you properly for winning it. Nothing says you have to have a position on this.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
