Serbia election surprise shakes up prime minister markets
A student-led movement has delivered a historic blow to Serbia’s longtime political heavyweight, and now markets face the question: who takes over?
Serbia’s parliamentary election saw a result not many expected just days ago. The increasingly popular student-led movement has defeated Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling camp. This is massive, as it ended Vučić’s very long grip on power, but it also sent the country’s politics into a territory it hasn’t visited in a while. The markets too found themselves in a new area.
As Predictbook previously reported, former president Vučić was leading the PM market with a significant advantage, as his United Serbia list stood at 70% on October 23. The markets were quite convinced that the long-term ruler (previously serving both in the presidential and the PM roles since 2014) would maintain dominance over the country’s politics.
He did not.
The Student List won 52.65% of the vote, compared with 39.22% for Vučić’s United Serbia list. Vučić conceded defeat on Sunday night.
The market saw over $6.6 million in volume for the Student List and $4.48 million for United Serbia.
The victory follows nearly two years of massive student-led protests, mobilizing tens and hundreds of thousands of people throughout the country. The protests began after the deadly railway station canopy collapse in Novi Sad in 2024, demanding accountability and then growing into a country-wide demonstration against corruption and Vučić’s government’s grip on power.
Who becomes Serbia’s next prime minister?
The election shock has now moved traders’ attention to the next stage – who will lead the new government?
On Polymarket’s next prime minister market, former Governor of the National Bank of Serbia, Dejan Šoškić, is leading the outcome at around 44%, followed by Ilija Srdanović at roughly 26%. Vučić’s implied probability has fallen below 1%.
Srdanović told the BBC that history was being rewritten: "The energy is unstoppable," he said. "We offer our citizens the core values of civilised society, which this previous regime has taken away from our citizens for the last time."
All in all, that’s quite a change for a market that has attracted more than $3 million in trading volume.
Still, the frontrunner’s position is far from settled, and the Student List’s victory leaves the crucial question of government formation to be resolved.
The choices could reshape the odds quickly, and the traders are watching.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
