Serbia protests grow, but ex-president Vučić leads markets

Tens of thousands of people gathered once again in Belgrade on October 22 for a student-led rally, the final one before Serbia's parliamentary election set for October 25. But despite the magnitude of the protests, prediction markets still give former president Aleksandar Vučić a significant advantage.

After nearly two years of anti-government demonstrations, with thousands protesting against Vučić and his camp, the movement is now readying for the big day.

Polymarket's Serbia parliamentary election market priced Vučić’s United Serbia list at 70% on October 23 (11:30 UTC), up 8% over the past week, compared with 30% for the student-backed Students Win list, which is down 10% in the same timeframe.

The market has attracted more than $2.6 million in trading volume by the time of writing.

What began as protests over corruption and demands for accountability had expanded into a nationwide challenge to the present government. That said, traders are still expecting the current leaders to stay in power, even if in different political positions.

Can street protests translate into votes?

The market's pricing is quite different from recent polling, which actually shows a much tighter race. A pre-election survey published on October 20 put the student-backed list at 44.5% and Vučić's Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) at 42.7%.

That gap between polling and market prices could be explained by the fact that the ruling party has a well-established political machinery working for over a decade now. Still, while the Students Win is new, traders may be underestimating the impact that the protest movement may have.

Meanwhile, this election has direct implications for Vučić's political future. He resigned as president in September, seeking to return to power as prime minister. He wouldn’t lose political influence: the PM in the country wields significant power. The PM during Vučić’s presidency, Ana Brnabić (now acting president), was Vučić's close ally, and during this period he dominated Serbian politics as well.

The campaign conditions also play a role here, as civil society groups have raised concerns once more about the fairness of the electoral environment.

For now, prediction markets continue to heavily favor Vučić's camp, but Sunday's vote will show if the protest movement has managed to turn this major public mobilization into actual parliamentary power.