Mexico's central bank published its next move in advance
The Bank of Mexico pushed back the date it expects inflation to hit 3%, from the spring of 2027 to the end of it
On Thursday, the Bank of Mexico left its overnight rate at 6.50%, and all 5 board members voted for it. Polymarket's Bank of Mexico September market then went up. No change cost 89 cents on Wednesday and costs 95.5 now, which still pays 4.7% when the next statement lands on September 24.
Banxico is Mexico's central bank, and it sets the rate at which Mexican banks lend to each other overnight. It publishes 8 decisions a year, and it tells you in the statement what it expects to do next.
The August statement said keeping the rate where it is would be appropriate. It also moved the date the bank expects inflation back at its 3% target from the second quarter of 2027 to the fourth.
- Mexican core inflation ran at 3.95% in early July, a whisker under the top of the bank's tolerance band
- Headline inflation was 3.10% over the same fortnight, so the two readings are pulling in opposite directions
- A Reuters poll of 35 economists on August 4 had 34 calling the hold, and 28 of them see 6.50% at the end of December
- Citi's July survey of 37 analysts found 5 banks expecting a hike and 5 expecting it to be down
- The bank has not moved since May 7, when it cut 25 basis points on a three-to-two vote
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