A three-in-one overlooked election combo sits at 13%

Polymarket traders are pricing a combination of three major political outcomes at three very different battlefields at just 13% (on Wednesday at noon UTC). This includes Flávio Bolsonaro winning Brazil’s presidential runoff, Benjamin Netanyahu becoming Israel’s next prime minister, and Democrats winning control of the US Senate.

Each of these races is attracting significant attention on its own, but the question is whether anyone’s paying enough attention to the market that combines them.

This multi-election market bundles three political contests into a single bet, meaning that all three must happen for the combination to resolve.

Three elections, one potentially overlooked market

Brazil is the closest one to offer answers. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of the convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, faces incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the October 25 runoff. This comes after he narrowly ended ahead in the first round. But this is a very tight race, with recent polls showing this lead narrowing further. The markets heavily favor Bolsonaro with a whopping 80%. And yet, the outcome is still very much uncertain.

Israel is next up, and it presents a whole different challenge. Gadi Eisenkot and Netanyahu are competing for the PM position, with Eisenkot leading both the markets and the polls. But Netanyahu may still have plans to turn the tide in his favor. However, polls may not mean much. In the end, coalition arithmetic will decide the next prime minister. This makes the Israeli part of this market combo another major source of uncertainty.

Finally, the third piece is the US Senate, where Democrats are seeking to win control in the November 3 midterms – and they have good chances at doing so, based on the polls and the market sentiment. However, getting those four seats they need for the win is a massive challenge. Additionally, the Democratic Senate majority outcome can’t compensate for either of the other two legs failing. If one fails, it all fails.

And while the Bolsonaro-Netanyahu-Democrats combination stands at 14%, other combinations that involve the same elections have different prices. The Bolsonaro-Eisenkot-Dems combo is at 38%, while Bolsonaro-Netanyahu-Republicans stands at 8%.

The volumes of the combo markets are low compared with the standalone markets, so it may indeed have a smaller audience. For example, the combo markets overall have seen $250,550 in volume so far, while Brazil Presidential Market alone attracted over $190 million. That doesn’t mean mispricing, though.

All of this creates an interesting question of whether the low price shows the real difficulty of getting all three outcomes right, or whether this combination is simply getting less attention than the individual races.