Bennett touts Polymarket as odds shift in Israel race
Naftali Bennett dismissed polling data on live TV and pointed to Polymarket as a better measure. But his odds have slipped from their recent high.
Former Israeli prime minister, who’s now running for another term, Naftali Bennett, has given Polymarket an unexpected endorsement, and on live television. Yet, his own odds on this market have been dropping.
Challenged by a reporter over polling figures showing him trailing, Bennett dismissed the data. Instead, he pointed viewers toward the prediction market, arguing that traders put money behind their expectations.
“Look at Polymarket,” Bennett said, describing it as one of the most accurate indicators, but also saying that his chances had risen from 8% to 17% in a week. He urged people to “put your money where your mouth is.”
But the market hasn’t continued moving in his favor. In Polymarket’s ‘Israel’s next prime minister’ market, Bennett is now priced at around 13%, below the 17% he cited. Since last November, the odds have fallen 40%, as well as 4% in the last week and 2% over the previous day.
This makes the endorsement for quite a striking moment, as the candidate himself used market odds to challenge polls, only for those odds to retreat.
Election complexities and Trump endorsements
Bennett’s comments show a fundamental difference between traditional surveys and prediction markets, as polls ask voters whom they support or how they intend to vote, but the markets reflect what traders believe will happen. They do so based on the information that’s available to them, as well as the positions they are willing to take. As such, markets are likely to change faster and to a higher degree than polls.
Israel’s electoral system adds a complication to the mix, because the prime minister isn’t elected directly – parties will negotiate after the election to form a governing coalition, meaning that the chosen prime minister may not be the person who led in the polls or the market.
🇮🇱 Asked about unfavorable polls, former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett replied: “Look at @Polymarket.” A TV interviewer pressed him on polling numbers that appeared to be running against him. Bennett dismissed the suggestion, pointing instead to his rising chances of becoming prime minister after the next election. He said his odds on Polymarket had climbed from 8% to 17% in just one week, arguing that its forecasts were more accurate. “Put your money where your mouth is. That’s Polymarket.” - Naftali said.
— Predictbook (@Predictbook) October 16, 2026
That said, the market currently places former military chief Gadi Eisenkot ahead of incumbent Benjamin Netanyahu, at 47% and 29%, respectively. US President Donald Trump has endorsed Netanyahu over the weekend, calling him “Strong, Brave, and Brilliant.” It’s still unclear whether this support will affect the odds.
Meanwhile, the election is scheduled for October 27, leaving little time for major political changes.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
