Manchester City walked away from a £120m Chelsea midfielder

Chelsea gave Manchester City until 5 PM on Friday to bid £120m for its Argentine midfielder, Enzo Fernández. However, City never called. Polymarket's Enzo Fernández transfer market now prices Manchester City at just a 37% probability. Chelsea, which is what the market will resolve even if he goes nowhere, is at 65% probability. That is what we are betting on to capture a 54% return.

There are a couple of reasons why betting on Manchester City is wrong in the first place. The rules say, in black and white, that if nobody signs him anywhere, this market resolves to Chelsea. So a bet on City is a bet on actual signatures, medicals, and £120m, all of it inside 16 days, from a club that just declined to start.

• Chelsea set the 5 PM cutoff and put £120m on him
• The terms it offered other clubs in May are off the table now
• His contract runs to 2031, which is six more seasons
• City agreed a £52m sale of Tijjani Reijnders and still did not bid
• City's manager on Friday: "I don't think we're going to do something today"

Of course, the case for Manchester City is not imaginary. Fernández wanted this move before anybody else did. He asked to leave in May, and back in April Chelsea had already dropped him for two games for talking about Real Madrid on a podcast. Since then he has agreed personal terms with City, so the player and his wages are already settled. However, the fee is not, and City cannot raise it until Barcelona finally takes Rodri off its hands.