A trader reached Polymarket's top 500 on common sense alone

On Monday morning, a Polymarket wallet called Llalalala sold $238,241 of Vladimir Putin keeping his job at 92 cents, $156,400 of which was sold in a single order that our alert system flagged. Later, he did the same thing, selling $80,264 of the Iranian government staying in place at 93. Both went through within the same hour.

This is what he does and always did. In 21 months and 119 predictions, this account has made $412,688, and almost none of it came from calling an event. It came from selling other people the idea that one was coming. As a result, he became the top 500 trader on Polymarket and the 129th-ranked trader in Politics.

Common sense pays badly, which is why so few people bother with it. You pay 85 or 90 cents for a contract that says the world looks the same in December as it does today, you wait, and the market hands you 10 or 15 back. The hard part is doing it in size while every headline on your screen says otherwise.

Look at how the Iran position got built:

• 6 months ago: $1,538 at 50 cents, the first stake
• 4 months ago: $94,707 more at an average of 82.2
• 3 months ago: $94,996 more at 85, including one $80,801 order
• 2 months ago: $106,492 more at 89, including one $65,644 order
• Monday morning: the last $80,264 sold at 93

Every one of those purchases came after a week of news that made the other side look clever. The wallet bought anyway, 106 separate times, and closed the whole thing flat for $11,814 of profit on $620,416 of turnover.

The one time it stopped using common sense, it paid for it. The largest loss on the account, $93,209, came from betting that Iran's Supreme Leader would be gone by March 31. It has not made that mistake since.

What is left is $111,778 across four positions that all say the same dull thing, the biggest being $69,550 of Putin still holding office on New Year's Eve.