Does anyone take Hengam Island from Iran by September 30?
American forces struck Larak Island on Sunday. We explain what would actually have to happen for the island next door to change hands.
American forces destroyed two rocket launchers on Larak Island on Sunday, after Iranian troops were seen preparing to fire sea mines from them into the Strait of Hormuz. It was the first American strike inside Iran in a month. Polymarket's Hengam Island market predicts a 1.65% probability that the island next door stops being Iranian by September 30, so betting against it costs 97.7 cents and returns 2.35% in 31 days.
Hengam sits two kilometers south of Qeshm. About 500 people live there. It has a lighthouse and a military radar, and Britain kept its main Gulf naval base on it from 1913 until 1935.
The Polymarket rules are what make the contract so cheap in the first place. Iran has to stop exercising governmental or military control, and some other state or force has to establish control on the island itself. Raids, bombardment, ships offshore, and an announcement do not count. If control is merely disputed on September 30, the market pays no.
Hengam has been hit twice. Airstrikes on April 1 injured seven people, one critically, on what a provincial official called civilian sites. Later, two explosions were reported there on July 15. Nobody came ashore either time.
The thing is, nobody has come ashore anywhere. Six months into this war, across 3,580 American and Israeli strikes and 2,053 Iranian ones, not one Iranian island has changed hands.
Many would think taking an island is the hard part. But the actual hard part is holding one, which is why nobody even tried. Qeshm is two kilometers away, and Iran still holds it. Two kilometers is mortar range, so the garrison would be shelled from Iranian ground every night, and unlike a ship or a plane, it could not leave. Resupply would come by boat through a strait where 70 ships have been attacked. It's just not worth the risk.
Retired General Joseph Votel put the garrison for Kharg Island, the only island President Trump has actually talked about seizing, at 800 to 1,000 troops. At the time of writing this, one amphibious group is left in the region, the Boxer, carrying the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit. The other one sailed home to Okinawa on July 22.
Most importantly, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told allies on August 25 that a new campaign will wait until after the midterm elections.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
