Betting against Jeff Bezos buying Liverpool pays 441%

Polymarket's Bezos Liverpool market closed Sunday night at 10.5 cents. It is 81.5 today, after Sky News reported that Fenway Sports Group was preparing to announce a Liverpool transaction "as soon as this week".

For the contract to pay, 3 separate things have to hold:

• A binding agreement has to be announced
• Bezos has to still be in the group when it lands
• And it has to be recognizable as him

Now, the deal is probably real. The thing is, there are numerous, far more compelling logical reasons against Bezos becoming the owner of Liverpool FC than otherwise:

• The Financial Times broke the transaction on July 21, and FSG confirmed the same day that a consortium "led, managed, and represented by Amit Bhatia" had approached it
• Bezos is not in that sentence, and no named source at any outlet has put him in the group
• Sky first linked him on July 22, and its own source "cautioned that he was not certain to proceed"
• He was reported for months as the buyer of the Washington Commanders and never bid, and was named as the natural buyer of the Seattle Seahawks in February
• On August 3, a week before the Sky story, Bezos filed to sell up to 15 million Amazon shares worth $4.07bn. The filing states that the plan was adopted on November 14, 2025, and Amazon published the whole thing in its annual report on February 6. So, the belief that Bezos is specifically planning to buy Liverpool FC due to this sale is not accurate. Where his money did go, in July, was $2bn into Blue Origin.