Betting that nobody is named James Bond this year pays 339%
Denis Villeneuve was hired to direct the next James Bond film in June 2025, and there is still no actor 13 months later
$26,060 went through Polymarket's next James Bond market on Monday, on a market that has taken $5o,000 since it opened in May. Most of it, $15,000, went into selling Callum Turner. Turner is 14 cents now, an all-time low. The contract on nobody being named at all by December 31 is 22.8 cents, which pays 339%. And that's the side we are taking.
The reason this leg keeps rising is due to the following facts:
- Amazon MGM has never set a date for a casting announcement, and its most recent word, on May 14, was that it will share news "as soon as the time is right"
- Bond 26 has no announced release date, no title, and no filming start, and the same page says so
- Denis Villeneuve was attached to direct in June 2025, 13.5 months ago
- Steven Knight's script was reported nowhere near ready on April 29
- Producer Amy Pascal's only timing guidance, given to Deadline last week, is that "the end of the year is a good bet"
Apart from the points mentioned earlier, perhaps the most important fact is that every Bond since George Lazenby has been announced between 12 and 17 months before his first film opened. If the film lands in 2028, as this year's reporting suggests, the announcement does not have to happen in 2026 at all.
This page does not constitute investing advice. Prediction markets and/or gambling may result in loss of funds. You are advised to conduct your own due diligence before taking any action.
