A 59% payout is hiding in the wrong half of Los Angeles

Nobody has polled the Los Angeles mayor's race since the primary on June 2. Polymarket prices it anyway, at 63 cents for Karen Bass to win the runoff on November 3.

With no polling, the primary is the only evidence anybody has. Bass led it with 34.3% and did not clear half, which is why there is a runoff at all.

Nithya Raman, a city councilwoman from her party's left, took 28.5% and qualified for it.

Spencer Pratt, a reality television star, took 25.8% and did not.

The runoff is therefore decided by Pratt's 207,757 voters. One reason they voted for him is that he wanted to hire more police, clear tents from the sidewalks, and audit city hall. Because of that, it's unlikely the majority of his voters will now endorse Raman, and here's why.

• She was one of three council members who voted against banning tents near schools.
• She voted against a police pay raise, and the police union is now spending about $900,000 on ads reminding people of it.
• In the areas Pratt won, Bass finished second, and Raman finished third, about 10 points back.
• Nine of Raman's own council colleagues endorsed Bass, including the council's two other socialists.
• Pratt has endorsed neither woman and called both of them corrupt communists.

Raman holds 229,576 votes and needs roughly 402,000 to win. The 172,000 she is missing have to come out of a bloc that ranked her third.

Although there's one poll, taken in May, where Raman is ahead of Bass 32 to 28. It was fielded before a single vote was cast. 40% of the people asked picked neither woman, and it put Bass at 26% two weeks before she won 34.3%.

And regarding Bass, the situation is not perfect either. Her homeless count rose 3.4% on July 24, and the report into her handling of the Palisades fire is still sealed while federal prosecutors work. It can land before November, which will potentially ruin her odds of winning.

Still, Bass is the likelier winner because, as mentioned above, the runoff is mostly a contest for Pratt’s voters and their preferences on policing and tents make a large shift to Raman unlikely. Polymarket traders seem to be pricing in that coalition advantage more aggressively than the thin polling evidence warrants. Given the coalition math, the 63-cent contract still looks like a solid opportunity, with about 59% upside in 96 days.